Friday, December 19, 2014

Jevon's Paradox

In 1866, Stanley Jevons wrote about the seemingly contradictory determination that increased efficiency results in increased consumption: "It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth. As a rule, new modes of economy will lead to an increase of consumption." 

It is now referred to as Jevon's Paradox. A copy of Stanley's book can be accessed here:  Jevon's Paradox

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Innovation Powering Up India


1.5 Billion People in the World do not have Electricity
India is Deploying Renewable MicroGrids to Close the Gap
December 7, 2014

Author: 
Donald S. Bradshaw, Jr., President, Velerity


An innovative hybrid solar-biomass DG power plant in India is bringing electricity for the first time to villages in the Indian state of Bihar.  Another innovative design, a biomass gasifier running on rice husks, has been deployed in 85 locations across Bihar.  According to an International Energy Agency study, approximately 579.1 million people do not have access to electricity in India. [1]  According to a study published by the Vasudha Institute in India, “…close to 100,000 villages remain un-electrified, with over 45% of the population having no access to electricity.” [2]  Based on the results of the 2011 Census, out of 246.7 households in India, 32.8% of households, or 80.9 million households, did not have access to electric light. [3]

There is a strong link, both empirically and statistically, between access to energy and economic well-being, as seen in the following chart.  According to a recent report, Rural Electrification in India, having access to reliable electricity “…represents a key driver behind economic development and raising basic standards of living.” [4]  On average, increasing per capita GDP by $10 requires approximately a 93,000 Btu increase in primary energy consumption.  In the data below, Indian primary energy use is 20 million Btu per person per year, and per capita GDP is $1,055 per year. [5]


















Electrification in India brings significant benefits to agrarian economies, increasing irrigation and crop production.  It has also been shown that bringing electrifying households can reduce a household’s expenditures, when switching from kerosene lighting to electric lighting. 

One of the States in India with the lowest penetration of electricity for household lighting is Bihar, with only 16.4% of its households reporting electric lighting in the 2011 Census.  This corresponds to 15.8 million households in Bihar which do not have electricity, out of a total of 18.9 million households. 

Being connected to the grid, however, does not guarantee having access to electricity.  Once a village in India has connected to the grid, generation capacity in India is inadequate to meet demand.  There are four main reasons why supply does not meet demand.  The first is inadequate installed supply.  Economic growth in India in recent years has outstripped the ability to add additional power plants.  The government of India estimates in 2014 that there is a daily shortage of capacity in the country of 30,000 MW.  This results in power rationing through planned outages. [6]  A second major factor is breakdowns and maintenance schedules of existing power plants, forcing plants to be off line even though power is required.  The third reason is the lack of available capacity in the distribution and transmission lines to transport the power.  The fourth reason is the lack of revenues due to subsidization, customers not making payments, and the stealing of power.

According to the World Bank, “In India electricity theft leads to annual losses estimated at US$4.5 billion, about 1.5 percent of GDP.[7]   According to the World Bank, annual losses by the power sector are expected to reach $27 billion per year by 2017.  Between 2007 and 2012, India installed 50 GW of new generation capacity, which fell short of the original goal of 78 GW.    

Planned outages typically occur during times of peak demand, which is in the evening hours.  Outages can last from 2 to 20 hours per day. 

There are many solutions being implemented to address India’s power situation.  For villages that have no power, solutions include:













In the Indian state of Bihar, several innovative approaches are being taken, and I would like to illustrate two of them.  The first is an innovative 3 MW hybrid solar/biomass power system in Barun in the State of Bihar.  The system is utilizing a hybrid design, combining a linear parabolic trough solution, known as CSP (concentrating solar power) with a biomass plant.  The purpose of hybridizing the solar with the biomass plant is to be able to integrate some degree of dispatchability into the operation of the plant. 

The plant has been given the designation SCOPE BIG, which stands for Scalable CSP Optimized Power Plant Engineered with Biomass Integrated Gasification.  It is designed to be demonstration project for which additional larger scale deployments will follow. 

Participants in the project include Indian-based CSTEP (Center for the Study of Science Technology and Policy, Thermax, the Bihar State Power Generation Company, Energy Centre of the Netherlands, and the National Centre for Scientific Research, based in France.  Fraunhofer Germany is also participating. 

Another innovative approach being taken to address energy and poverty issues in Bihar is Husk Power Systems, which has deployed approximately 85 off-grid biomass gasification plants in India with agreements in place to deploy additional systems on the African continent.  In 2012-2013, India produced an estimated record crop of rice, amounting to 104.4 million tonnes. [8]  As a by-product of rice production, this means that India also produced an estimated 25.1 million tonnes of rice husks. [9]  For the most part it has been determined that these rice husks are disposed of in landfills. 

After evaluating several alternative approaches, the founder of Husk Power Systems,Gyanesh Pandey, developed a gasification system that utilizes waste rice hulls as feed stock.  The system is comprised of a rice husk gasifier, a series of filters to clean up the gas, a gas engine, a 35 kW generator, and a 240 Volt Alternating Current system to connect customers within a two kilometer distance from the plant.  Within several months of an installation, the company usually has a 75% market penetration rate.  The average number of customers per system is between 200 to 250 households and additional commercial customers.  Each residential customer receives two 15 watt compact fluorescent light bulbs and a phone charger.  Each customer pays about $2.20 per month for the service, which reduces their Kerosene use by about 6 to 7 litres per months, with a net saving per household of an estimated $4.40 per month.  Customers can have increased levels of service, if desired. [10]  The system needs about 110 pounds of corn husks per hour to operate at full output. 

There are many innovations that have been deployed to drive costs down and make the system successful.  One of the interesting outcomes is that the bulk of the payments that customers make for their electricity is recycled back into the local economies, for labor and biomass.  More information can be found on their web site:  http://www.huskpowersystems.com/  




[1] Rural Electrification in India – an overview, Bilolikar & Deshmukh, National Power Training Institute, Faridabad
[2] An Endless Wait with an Uncertain Future: Unpacking the Energy Crisis,
[4] Economic and Institutional aspects of Renewables, James Cust, Anoop Singh and Karsten Neuhoff, December 2007
[5] Sustainable Economics, Donald Bradshaw, Book Draft, December, 2014
[6] India faces a daily power outage of 30,000 MW, Livemint, August 11, 2014
[7] Reforming the Power Sector, Public Policy for the Private Sector, Note Number 272, World Bank, September 2004
[8] Pocket Book on Agricultural Statistics 2013, Government of India, Ministry of Agriculture, December, 2013
[9] Agriculture Fuels Renewable Energy in India’s Rice Belt through Husk Power Systems, Feed the Future, Newsletter, November 22, 2013
[10] Husk Power Systems India, Case Study Summary, Ashden Awards Case Study, 2011 Ashden Award, April 2011

Friday, February 21, 2014

Salem MA Natural Gas Plant Approved with Expiration Date

FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/21/business/energy-environment/massachusetts-approves-a-gas-power-plant-with-an-expiration-date.html?hpw&rref=science

Massachusetts Regulators Approve a Gas-Fired Power Plant With an Expiration Date

By MATTHEW L. WALD  FEB. 20, 2014

In a hearing in Boston, a state siting board voted 5 to 0 to accept a proposal by a major New England environmental group and a company that wants to build the plant that would allow the plant to open, but require it to emit less and less carbon dioxide until it closed by 2050.For years, proponents of natural gas, including President Obama, have promoted it as a “bridge fuel,” cleaner than coal but not clean enough to solve the climate problem. On Thursday, regulators in Massachusetts, in an unusual vote, put that theory into practice when it approved a new gas-fired power plant with only a limited life span.

The Conservation Law Foundation and Footprint Power reached an agreement over a proposed $800 million plant to be built in Salem Harbor, at the site of a coal plant that will shut this year. The new plant would generate 630 megawatts — although in later years, it would either have to limit its hours of operation, install carbon capture or make investments in renewable energy to stay under the declining emissions cap.

The agreement for progressively lower output and a definite retirement date is a first, according to Jonathan Peress, a vice president of the Conservation Law Foundation. Gas cuts carbon dioxide emissions by about half compared to coal, but it is still far too high in carbon to meet the ultimate climate emissions requirements, he said.

“We want gas to continue to displace coal,” he said. “We just don’t want to worry that we’re going from heroin to methadone.”

The agreement was submitted to the Massachusetts Energy Facilities Siting Board this week.

The plant is scheduled to open in 2016 and would operate normally until 2026, when progressively stricter limits would be imposed. In 2049, its last year of operation, its limit would be about one-quarter what it was in 2016.

Joining in the agreement was a state agency, the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, which promised that if the deal was approved, it would be written into the state-issued operating permit for the plant. The state would embark on a program to reduce leaks of unburned natural gas. Methane, the main ingredient of natural gas, is a potent global warming gas.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Sustainable Economics: A Response to Post by Jo Confino, Executive Editor of The Guardian on Need for a Compelling Future Vision for Sustainability to Progress

Short Piece Written in Comments Section in Response to Post by Jo Confino, Executive Editor of the Guardian, titled: "Sustainability movement will fail unless it creates a compelling future vision

Ultimately, to survive, everything thing we do will have to be sustainable.  Everything.  Throughout history, societies have faced calamities, to which their collective response made all the difference between survival or collapse.  In most cases, societies were unable to perceive much less respond to their inherent unsustainable ways of living, such as the Mayans, Easter Island or the Anasazi.  Their societies were based on unsustainable and precarious systems of life support tied to the environment.  In some cases, challenges have been recognized and addressed, by perceptive and strong governments which was able to identify the problem and implement solutions. The Japanese in the 17th century were faced with extraordinary challenge of galloping deforestation.  The government instituted policies including using less wood for construction, putting in more efficient heating stoves, and switched to coal from wood for heating. Japan is currently about 70% forested.  In a more recent century, the world did come together to address CFC’s.  

As seen in the United States and Europe, our carbon emissions have come down over the past five years.  Some may say we have exported our carbon emissions to Asian countries.  That can account for some of the change, but it is also important to look at reduced miles being driven, higher efficiency of cars, the switch to lower carbon natural gas from coal in the United States, and the growth in renewable sources of energy in Europe and the United States.  The US and European economies are responding to higher oil prices, which has reduced the level of economic activity and reduced deleterious environmental impacts.  This provides a clue to our future and solving the problem in two respects.  First, economies of advanced countries do have a higher elasticity of oil price to demand than Asian countries.  Second, higher oil prices result in lower levels of economic activity, increased efficiency, and reduced environmental impacts.  The earth is telling us to cut back on energy, and we are.  The pace of the cut back may not be as steep a glide slope as what is sought, warranted or needed.  The implication is that we need to do something to (1) steepen the glide slope in developed economies; (2) reverse emissions growth in developing countries; and (3) address severe economic and well-being inequities around the world.

Governments will play a critical and pivotal role in turning the tide towards and accelerating the move towards a more sustainable economy.  The challenge with a capitalist system, well established in the literature and through practice, is the frequent absence of externalities, short time frame decision horizons, and boundary conditions that do not address social issues such as global inequity.  Nation states have a hard time being first, to take the lead on tackling large issues.  The move to address deforestation in the United States, for example, began with State and regional initiatives to set aside parkland in the early 20th century.   We can also see more recent examples of localization of environmental initiatives with RGGI in the Northeast, the carbon trading initiative in California, and the implementation of renewable energy standards in selected states, representing just a few of many excellent examples. 

Ultimately, realizing a sustainable economy is in the interest of business, governments and individuals.  Without sustainable resources, economic decline, which has already begun, is inevitable, and will be inexorable and painful.  Forestalling initiatives which align our policies and investments to be consistent with a move to a sustainable economy is not in our best interest.  Having a  sustainable economy is not inconsistent with our economic interests, in fact, ultimately it is 100% consistent.  This central tenant, that increased sustainability and increased economic well-being are one and the same, may perhaps be that new paradigm people are looking for.  The interests of sustainability and economics are not at cross-purposes, but are of one.  Any society, any collective peoples throughout time, who did not own and embed sustainability within their societies and cultures, did not survive.  

Where does this unified theory of sustainability and economics come from?  Two perspectives.  One, mentioned earlier, is understanding the history of societies that collapsed.  The second is through understanding the source of economic activity within our own economies, and extrapolating the future risks our economy carries without integrating concepts of sustaining the economy going forward.

The global economy has grown to an extraordinary degree over the past several hundred years, tied to the level of energy entering the economy.  The level of economic activity is explained by two things: one being the level of energetic inputs entering the economy, and the second being the level of efficiency and productivity to which those resources are put.  Energy plus Efficiency.  If we want to grow our economy, we have two choices, increase the amount of energy resources being consumed, and/or increase efficiency and productivity.  This is a very interesting finding, given that we can have a growing economy with a static level of energy resources entering the economy, as long as we improve the efficiency of resource utilization.  Second interesting finding is that if we can economically migrate our energy systems away from nonrenewable to renewable resources, while keeping energy use static and improving efficiency, we can once again have a growing economy while simultaneously reducing deleterious environmental impacts. 

The cost of energy, however, plays an important role on our level of economic activity.  Higher energy costs mean a lower level of economic activity, constrained by efficiency improvements.  If sustainable sources of energy are a lot more expensive than non-renewable, then we will see a lowering of economic activity.  The pace of the transition will be governed by the relative economics of the alternatives, and the degree of incentives required to level the economic playing field, and the pace of capital formation and its availability.  Fortunately, the economics of renewable energy are getting close to being competitive without subsidies, with costs continuing to move down over time with scale economies and continuous improvement.   So what is the process to make this happen?

(1) Build a specific vision of where we want to be and when in terms of sustainability.  For example, 80% sustainable in 40 years.  Great detail and specificity by sector, end-use, activity, etc. is highly recommended. (2) Identify specific performance metrics to track performance along the way, such as proportion of renewable energy on the grid, transportation, heating, etc. (3) Implement market incentives to encourage private capital to make investments.  Put a price on carbon, set up carbon caps with trading, keep CAFÉ going, eliminate subsidies on non-sustainable resources, reduce transition and market barriers where possible, expand RPS requirements to every state, implement stretch and zero net energy building codes in every jurisdiction in the country, implement net metering tariffs in every state, increase CHP incentives, invest in expanded public transit, etc. (4) Implement government initiatives to transition government faster than private markets. (5) Expand incentives and reduce market barriers for investments in energy efficiency and productivity.  (6) Incentivize investments in technology innovation tied to renewable energy and efficiency and productivity.

The prescriptive set of activities identified above are no surprise to anyone involved in accelerating our transition to a sustainable economy.  The effort to adopt these steps has to take place throughout society, to build a groundswell of activity that is sound and impactful, building up from the local, state and regional levels to the national and international level.  Significant progress has been made in specific sectors and in specific countries, such as Denmark with wind, German with Energiewende, and Texas with wind power.  There are many more examples, including renewable fuels and efficiency, but the pace has to increase and the efforts have to expand.        

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Japan's Solar Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Worth An Astounding $3.15/watt!

Japan implemented a significantly generous solar feed in tariff, equivalent to $0.42/kWh for 20 years.  It is expected that this will result in every available inch of available land being deployed with solar until there is no land available.  One innovation is the newly opened 70 MW Kyocera solar plant, which covers 315 acres of land filled in a shallow area off the coast of Japan.

The present value of the solar FIT is equivalent to $3.15/watt, which exceeds the fully loaded installed system price.  Hence, we are going to see an unprecedented boom in solar deployment in Japan over the next few years.  

Below is Japan's tariff schedule for renewable energy along with several photographs of the Kyocera plant..














Monday, November 11, 2013

JAPAN STARTS UP OFFSHORE WIND FARM NEAR FUKUSHIMA

Source: Associated Press
— Nov. 11, 2013 5:27 AM EST
ONAHAMA PORT, Japan (AP) — Japan switched on the first turbine at a wind farm 20 kilometers (12 miles) off the coast of Fukushima on Monday, feeding electricity to the grid tethered to the tsunami-crippled nuclear plant onshore.
Japan Offshore Wind Farm
The wind farm near the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant is to eventually have a generation capacity of 1 gigawatt from 143 turbines, though its significance is not limited to the energy it will produce. Symbolically, the turbines will help restore the role of energy supplier to a region decimated by a population exodus following the multiple meltdowns triggered by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
"Many people were victimized and hurt by the accident at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant, so it is very meaningful to have a new source of energy — renewable energy — based here," said Kazuyoshi Akaba, a vice minister of economy, trade and industry, after the turbine was turned on.
"It is the government's mission to ensure this project is a success," he said.
The project also highlights Japan's aspirations to sell its advanced energy technology around the globe.
Trading houses such as Marubeni Corp., which is leading the consortium building the offshore wind farm, are investing aggressively in renewable energy as well as conventional sources, helped by government policies aimed at nurturing favored industries.
All of Japan's 50 viable nuclear reactors are offline for safety checks under new regulatory guidelines drawn up after the Fukushima disaster. Utility companies have applied to restart at least 14 reactors under those new guidelines, which include more stringent requirements for earthquake and tsunami protections, among other precautions.
In Japan, the push to tap more renewable sources to help offset lost power capacity, and reduce costs for imported natural gas and oil, also got a boost last year with the implementation of a higher wholesale tariff for energy generated from non-conventional sources.
Japan, whose coast is mostly ringed by deep waters, is pioneering floating wind turbine construction, required for seabed depths greater than 50 meters (165 feet). The 2 megawatt downwind floating turbine that began operation Monday was built at a dry dock near Tokyo and towed to its location off the northeastern coast. Six huge chains anchor it to the seabed 120 meters (almost 400 feet) below.
The turbine is linked to a 66 kilovolt floating power substation, the world's first according to the project operators, via an extra-high voltage undersea cable.
As the government and Tokyo Electric Power Co. struggle to clean up from the nuclear disaster and begin the decades-long task of decommissioning Fukushima Dai-Ichi, Japan's energy industry is in the midst of a transition whose outcome remains uncertain.
Most leading members of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the powerful business lobbies such as Keidanren, and many experts, argue that wind and other renewables alone simply cannot make up for the steady and huge baseload power produced by nuclear plants.
"I favor renewables. But it would be irresponsible to create a pie-in-the-sky claim that renewables alone are the answer," said Paul Scalise, a fellow at Tokyo University and expert on Japan's energy industry. "There is no such thing as a perfect power source."
He cites figures showing wind power's average generating capacity at 2 watts per square meter versus 20 watts per square meter for solar power — and 1,000 watts per square meter for nuclear.
Eventually there could be dozens of wind turbines off Fukushima's scenic but deserted coast. The project is meant to demonstrate the feasibility of locating these towering turbines in offshore regions where the winds are more reliable and there are fewer "not in my backyard" concerns. Bigger turbines that might create noise problems onshore are not an issue so far offshore.
Yuhei Sato, the governor of Fukushima Prefecture who has lobbied hard for support following the 2011 disasters, said he expected local businesses to benefit from the wind farm. A research center is planned for Koriyama, a city further inland, and studies are underway on the impact of local fisheries from the floating turbines.
"We are moving ahead one step at a time. This wind farm is a symbol of our future," Sato said.
In theory, Japan has the potential for 1,600 gigawatts of wind power, most of it offshore. About a dozen projects are already in the works, from Kyushu in the south to Hokkaido in the north.
But wind power can be notoriously unstable: when the switch was pushed to "on" on Monday, the audience of VIP officials watched tensely as the wind turbine's blades, displayed on a video screen at a tourist center onshore, appeared becalmed. Eventually, though, the blades slowly began rotating.

Boeing to Deploy 9 MW of In-River Turbines with RER Hydro in Montreal

Boeing and RER Hydro to Provide Quebec with Clean Hydrokinetic Power
Agreement marks the 1st commercial sale of hydrokinetic turbines
Source:  Boeing Company Press Release
BECANCOUR, Quebec, Nov. 11, 2013 -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] and its partner RER Hydro of Montreal have entered into a multiyear agreement with the government of Quebec to provide 40 hydrokinetic turbines that will generate about 9 megawatts of clean, renewable power.

Once completed, the St. Lawrence River near downtown Montreal will have the world’s largest river-generated, hydrokinetic turbine farm.

"This agreement between industry and government will deliver renewable power while protecting the environment," said Boeing Defense, Space & Security President and CEO Dennis Muilenburg. "It also builds on Boeing's long-term, strategic partnership with Canada, supporting customers from aerospace and defense to clean energy, generating high-quality jobs, and making a difference in the community."

Imad Hamad, RER’s chief executive officer, added that "Because it’s not a dam, the turbines generate clean power without disrupting the river flow or the natural habitat. Numerous independent studies demonstrate that our technology has no negative impact on fish or other marine life."

This agreement is the first commercial sale of this technology. RER, which has been testing a prototype in the river for more than three years, will build the turbines in its new manufacturing plant here, thus creating the world's first river hydrokinetic manufacturing base in Quebec.

Boeing and RER signed an agreement last year giving Boeing exclusive rights to market and sell the turbines around the world. Boeing is providing program management, engineering, manufacturing, and supplier-management expertise, in addition to servicing the turbines. Boeing currently works with 40 suppliers in Quebec, contributing to the $1 billion in economic revenue Boeing generates annually across Canada.

As a leading developer of ecologically minded hydrokinetic harvesting solutions that preserve free-running rivers and their ecosystems, RER Hydro Ltd. has successfully created a cost-effective and environmentally friendly technology that requires minimum civil works and has no negative ecological impacts. The TREK (Kinetic Energy Recovery Turbine) technology is an innovative, proven solution that allows for the large-scale harnessing of the vast hydrokinetic energy available in rivers across the world.

A unit of The Boeing Company, Boeing Defense, Space & Security is one of the world's largest defense, space and security businesses specializing in innovative and capabilities-driven customer solutions, and the world's largest and most versatile manufacturer of military aircraft. Headquartered in St. Louis, Boeing Defense, Space & Security is a $33 billion business with 58,000 employees worldwide. Follow us on Twitter: @BoeingDefense.
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Contact:       
Robert Sterling
Ventures
Boeing Defense, Space & Security
Office: +1 314-233-1816
Mobile: +1 314-681-3463
robert.sterling2@boeing.com

Miriam Djebbar
RER Hydro
Office: +1 514-685-8735 ext. 7410
Mobile: +1 514-267-4526
miriam.djebbar@rerhydro.com