Everyone is running around talking about how solar PV has hit grid parity in multiple states and countries. Interesting parable - solar - in that solar PV has been around a long time and costs have been coming down significantly for many many years. I worked in a solar PV company back in 1979 and 1981, designing and building irrigation and remote power solutions.
Right now, for solar to be cost effective, even after all of this insane cost reduction, it still needs a 55% subsidy to stand on its own two feet here in Massachusetts. The is a federal incentive of 30%, and a state incentive of another 25% or so (based on variable SREC pricing). Even with these subsidies, it is a hard sell. Certainly much easier with $0.80/watt panels.
Point being is that electrochemical batteries have been around a long long time, and cost improvements have come slowly. We all want to see a sea change in the cost/performance of batteries, and let's support and cheer on the innovators pouring their time and resources into bringing about a better future. I get concerned about the mounting hype cycle and the damage that unrealized expectations may bring.
So, why isn't Elon Musk introducing an electric vehicle that can go 200 miles at the $50,000 or $60,000? Price? Some have postulated that the Tesla Model 3 will actually be priced closer to $60,000 when it is introduced. The introduction date has been publicly stipulated to be 2016, then perhaps 2017.
Based on the 2 year delay with the Model X, it is likely that the Model 3 won't be available to purchase until 2019, as a prototype has not yet …
Assume a more efficient, lighter smaller car than the model S, and a 200 mile range as compared to the Model S 285 mile range. Battery capacity may need to be 50 kWh, and the cost will have to be $200/kWh, compared to $352/kWh on the Model S, a 43% reduction in battery cost. Will we see a 43% reduction in battery cost in the next 5 years? Nope. Will it be close? Yup.
Will people want to buy a car with 200 mile range? It is not going to be a a mainstream product with that kind of range. Five years from now, the ICE and hybrid designs are going to continue to be more efficient, and more difficult to compete against. Battery cars 5 years from now are going to be an important part of the transportation system, but with inferior performance, they will occupy a "big niche" in the market, but will not be mainstream. Ultra hybrids, however, will benefit from the lowering of battery costs and ICE improvements, and will occupy an increasing position in the market.
The economic picture of the United States consumer is not going to change a whole lot in the next five years, sadly. Cars are going to continue to be a smaller share of the transportation pie, with many more options being available, from bike friendly cities, expanded Uber/Lyft, Zip cars, bike sharing, expanded transit, moving to cities, etc. Life choices are already changing, as both of my children in their twenties do not have cars, although the once did.
Most people have limited budgets and will not be able to afford the cost and hassle of having a vehicle with a lower utility value. Given the choice between spending less for a car that can go 450 miles, or spending more for a car that can go 200 miles, the choice for many is what can be called a no brainer, no matter how environmentally just an electric vehicle option may be.
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